Optimism / Likelihood judgment
Perceived vulnerability / risk
Comparative judgment processes
Scherer, A. M., Windschitl, P. D., & Smith A., R. (in press). Hope to be right: Biased information seeking following arbitrary and informed predictions. Journal of Experimental Social Psychology
Windschitl, P. D., Conybeare, D., & Krizan, Z. (2008). Direct-comparison judgments: When and why above- and below-average effects reverse. Journal of Experimental Psychology: General, 137, 182-200.
Windschitl, P. D., Smith, A. R., Rose, J. P., & Krizan, Z. (2010). The desirability bias in predictions: Going optimistic without leaving realism. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Making, 111, 33-47.
Windschitl, P. D., Rose, J. P., Stalkfleet, M., & Smith, A. R. (2008). Are people excessive or judicious in their egocentrism? A modeling approach to understanding bias and accuracy in people's optimism. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 95, 252-273.